Autonomous farming: a strategic tug of war or a tipping point?

14:00 | Autonomous/semi-autosteering systems | Expert opinion

Geert Hekkert Chief editor of Future Farming

Autonomous farming — 5 years ago, a Chinese manufacturer introduced the ET504-H, a groundbreaking autonomous tractor featuring 5G communication technology, self-driving capabilities, and remote control, co-developed with leading research institutes. Since then, it has faded from the spotlight, but it should serve as a wake-up call for Western agricultural machinery manufacturers: innovation does not stop with the industry giants. Photo: YTO

At CES Las Vegas 2025, agricultural autonomy stole the spotlight once again. John Deere announced its autonomous articulated RX tractor and an electric mid-size orchard tractor. Meanwhile, Japan’s Kubota Corporation made waves with its specialised field robots, winning the prestigious CES Best of Innovation Award 2025 for its Kubota Tractor Corporation KATR.

Yet, while such announcements capture imaginations, skepticism persists among industry experts and practitioners. Many believe that major manufacturers like John Deere are deliberately slowing innovation in autonomy to protect traditional revenue streams. Autonomous systems could reduce the number of tractors needed, rendering once critical features, like quiet cabs or suspension systems, less relevant. This mirrors the auto industry’s historic reluctance to embrace electric vehicles to safeguard fossil-fuel-based profits.

Strategic conflicts or opportunities for startups?

This tug-of-war between short-term profits and long-term innovation risks stalling progress. But it also creates opportunities for startups, like those developing retrofit kits for existing machines, which could revolutionise farm automation.

However, it is overly simplistic to lay all blame on large multinationals. Implementation challenges in real-world farming and the complexity of ensuring safety remain significant hurdles. The story of autonomy stretches back decades. Australian farmer Gerrit Kurtsjens used the first autonomous tractor in the 1990, yet adoption remains slow.

While the challenges are daunting, the opportunities for collaboration between major players, startups, and farmers are immense

A market-driven future

Ultimately, the ‘free’ market will dictate the pace of adoption. Rising labour shortages and the practical hunger for efficiency will drive financial benefits, accelerating adoption. Regional differences, too, are key: nations with acute labour shortages are primed for autonomy, while others lag behind due to less urgent needs or weaker technical infrastructures.

This is a pivotal moment. While the challenges are daunting, the opportunities for collaboration between major players, startups, and farmers are immense. The industry must learn from its history to avoid repeating past mistakes, ensuring innovation thrives.