‘Autonomy operations: Lessons from history and today’

05-12-2024 | Autonomous/semi-autosteering systems | Expert opinion

Craig Rupp CEO of Sabanto and a pioneer in autonomous farming

Robots are now a common sight in the agricultural spotlight. At Agritechnica 2023, the largest agricultural trade fair, several robots, like this Karl from manufacturer Kuhn, were displayed among the standard equipment. But in the field still a rarity. – Photo’s: Future Farming

Craig Rupp, CEO of Sabanto and a pioneer in autonomous farming, shares his perspective on the practical realities of autonomy in agriculture. As one of the first to operate a fleet of autonomous tractors, Rupp offers unique insights into why a standard autonomous tractor may often be more effective than a dedicated field robot. In this series of bi-weekly opinion pieces, he explores the reality of autonomous farming and what it could mean for farmers today.

“I think history has been a good teacher, even amid today’s push to accelerate the adoption of technology. Consider agriculture’s most transformative shifts: the transition from horses to tractors. Before the 1900s, horses were the primary source of power across the world. A single horse could cultivate 2 acres of land per day – a bottleneck as farms expanded in size during that era.

Although steam engines made the scene in the late 1800s, they were mostly inefficient for smaller farms. It wasn’t until 1917 when Henry Ford introduced the first affordable, mass-produced tractor to the market. The 1920s and 1930s saw a gradual adoption, limited as farmers were hesitant to replace familiar and dependable horse-drawn equipment. It wasn’t until the 1950s when the majority of U.S. farms had adopted tractors.

Why adoption takes time

What’s not to like about tractors? A tractor could do the work of multiple horses. Tractors reduced labor and reduced costs associated with feeding the animals. Tractors could power other machinery. Tractors allowed farmers to cultivate larger areas and adopt new farming practices.

Take a second and ponder this. It took over 30 years from the first available tractor to widespread adoption of an undeniable, proven technology in agriculture. Why, just why? Go ahead, blame it on the Great Depression or World War II. Then, consider that GPS saw its first use in agriculture in the late 1980s and widespread adoption didn’t really happen until the mid-2010s. There seems to be something magical about 30 years.

I’m a realist. Despite what the “Oracles of Ag” are saying, the widespread adoption of autonomy is not going to happen overnight. We’ve deployed a great number of autonomous tractors into the ag industry, and I’m starting to see a trend.

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A 1941 photo of a Dutch farmer plowing with horses. At that time, tractors were still rare and even controversial. Farmers who later switched to plowing with tractors often remarked that the ground crumbled more finely when using horses.

Farmers want proof on their own fields

Every single farmer I’ve met repeats the same line: “I need to see this running on my fields first.” Back in 2019, I stood in a field in Nebraska and will never forget what an 85-year-old farmer told me: “You can drive 100 miles in any direction and the farming will change.” Farmers instinctively know this, and their fields are unique. This shapes all their purchase decisions.

Autonomy will happen in the tasks where farmers spend the most time in the seat. The more time-consuming the operation, the greater the incentive to adopt autonomy. If you’re demonstrating autonomy for a field operation performed just once per year, you will struggle to find product-market fit. Remember those farmers hesitant to replace familiar horse-drawn equipment with tractors. You’re dealing with their grandchildren now.

Excellence in one task is non-negotiable

To succeed, autonomous systems must perform one field operation exceedingly well. Farmers will not accept anything less. Labor savings are apparent, but performance must meet or exceed manual operations, especially in terms of time.

I think there may be something behind this magical 30-year cycle – it’s the generational interval. The younger generation, raised in a digital world, is shaping the future of agriculture. The most successful ag companies will be those capable of leveraging this next generation.

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Harvesting corn silage in 1962 with a Porsche tractor in the Netherlands. Around this time, demand for tractors was booming in Western countries, benefiting manufacturers like Germany's Porsche. - Photo: Misset — Harvesting corn silage in 1962 with a Porsche tractor in the Netherlands. Around this time, demand for tractors was booming in Western countries, benefiting manufacturers like Germany’s Porsche. – Photo: Misset

Scaling with autonomy

Here’s a dirty little secret: in the majority of our deployments, we’re not truly replacing labor; we’re redeploying it. Every farming operation we work with desperately wants to scale, and autonomy helps them achieve that. It’s not a line item in an ROI calculator, but it’s invaluable.

We’re in the 2020s, and if history repeats itself, autonomy will be ubiquitous by the 2050s. The path will be paved with countless demos, proof in the field, excellence in operations, and the influence of the next generation.

Closing thoughts

I can’t help but wonder what went through the mind of a farmer plowing with horses as they watched their neighbor’s tractor in action. Change is inevitable, but history reminds us that patience and persistence are the keys to transformation.”